Aotearoa Summary Updated. 6 November 2023 - 15 November 2023
15 November. Atiamuri 4.4 6.33pm 20km West Kapiti 4.0 6.40pm Two late quakes show how quakes have clustered at the end of the quake period, beginning 6 November. Strong quake bursts at the beginning of forecast periods in Solar Cycle 24 aren't happening so much in Solar Cycle 25 as solar energy weakens. Update. 14 November 11.30pm SW Hawera 4.0 7.42am The 9 November addition of Central Taranaki Bight to risk locations is justified. South Island Mag 5 risk locations never worked, the period was volcanic with weak local quake response. Spaceweather has fallen to background levels today and the period has probably ended. The forecasted 12 November geomagnetic storm was a fizzer. The solar wind turned magnetically positive for most of the period, therefore not oriented to connect with Earth's magnetic field. The period was volcanic globally so Pacific and local quakes were subdued apart from the Mag 7 Banda Sea sequence early in the period. The period followed the basic forecast rule that eruptions follow quakes. New spaceweather is at least a week away. Update. 13 November 11.30am 13 November. 20km W. Pongaroa 4.2 7.51am A short lived Kp4 geomagnetic storm was generated shortly after midnight in New Zealand. Magnetic connection then swung north until 10.00am this morning. Magnetic connection is strong again as this update is posted. The forecast period is extended to 14 November. Possibility Mag 5 New Zealand. A strong volcanic period is evolving at Etna, Iceland and other locations. Pacific quakes are subdued as a result of the volcanic period. Update. 11 November 11.00pm Local quakes are quiet. Solar wind is still fast at 500km/second. A powerful solar filament eruption 9 November was Earth directed. A high proton storm has been underway at the Poles since the solar storm began. A strong coronal mass ejection may arrive at Earth 12 November. Kp6/7 geomagnetic storming seems likely. Local and Pacific quakes may pick up 12 November. Update. 9 November 11.30am 7 November. Tokomaru Bay 4.3 Local quakes are barely above background levels during the period, despite a Mag 7 sequence unfolding in the Banda Sea. Spaceweather has eased today, the late forecasted CME was weak with no density or field strength but high solar wind speed. Coronal hole CH1183 has arrived keeping solar wind speed very high at 700km/second. Local quakes could evolve when the solar wind drops back to 400km/seconds in a day or two. The forecast period is extended to 9 November. Central Taranaki Bight is added to Mag 4 risk locations. Forecast. 6-7 November 2023. Magnitude 5 risk locations are Snares Islands, Doubtful Sound, Northwest Arm Te Anau, Milford Sound, Upper Godley River, Upper Rangitata River, South of Kermadec Islands. Magnitude 4 risk locations are Hollyford River, Pyke River, Cascade River, Arawhata River, Cheviot, Lake Sumner, Hanmer, Mahia, Gisborne, Matawai, East of East Cape. Volcanos quiet. A filament eruption on 3 November is here as this forecast is posted. Several days of moderate Kp6 geomagnetic storms are likely due to a following coronal hole windstream due 9 November. The forecast period is likely to be extended. Forecast Update. 6 November 9.30am Strong Kp7 spaceweather conditions set in last night with many spectacular auroras viewed across the South Island. Quakes are slow to respond as they typically are in Solar Cycle 25. A weak coronal mass arrival was only given impetus due to its strong -20nT Bz magnetic component, indicating again how Earth's magnetic field is weakening and also likely changes in the nature of coronal mass ejections. Two stronger solar windstreams are due tonight and 9th November, making for a long lasting geomagnetic storm and auroras. A long and possibly powerful Pacific quake may be underway. Porangahau, Waipukurau, Cape Campbell are added to Mag 4 risk locations. Aotearoa Earthquake and Volcano Forecast Service © 2013 - 2024 |
