Aotearoa Earthquake and Volcano Forecast Service

Pacific Summary. 6 November 2023 - 14 November 2023

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The period began with a Mag 7 Banda Sea quake sequence and ended with volcanic activity at Etna and Iceland.
Eruptions tend to follow quakes.
The 12 November geomagnetic storm was a brief Kp4 fizzer due to poor magnetic connection.
The Bismarck Sea 6.1 was actually part of a long sequence of quakes at the location, beginning with a 12 November Mag 5.9.
Despite the forecast map being peppered with Mag 6 risk locations, quakes happened nearby but frustratingly not in risk locations.
Equally, the 14 November 1000km SW Mentawai 6.1 was unusual in being so far out from the coast, leaving the forecasters frustrated again.
The eruption of Etna and the uprising of magma at Grindavik ended abruptly following the 12 November brief Kp4 geomagnetic storm.
New spaceweather isn't due for several days.

Update. 11 November 11.00pm.Grindavik, Iceland 5.2 +swarm.
Eruption Iwo Jima.
A powerful quake swarm at Reykjanes Peninsula only 3km from Grindavik has ruined some roads as uplift and sooner rather than later an eruption takes place.
Volcanologists say the eruption is several days away at least but local Civil Defence is ordering evacuations.
The nearby thermal power plant and famous Blue Lagoon Hotpools have closed.
Strong new spaceweather is due to arrive 12 November.
A filament eruption on 9 November was powerful and Earth facing.
A high proton storm has been underway since the eruption, heating and electrically charging the Poles.
Solar wind is still at 500km/second.
The arrival of the coronal mass ejection will extend the forecast period to over a week.
A late burst of quakes and eruptions seems likely.
Flores Sea, South of Lombok, Northern Papua New Guinea, Alaska Peninsula, Offshore Northern California, Antofagasta are added to Mag 6 risk locations.
An eruption is possible at Reykjanes Peninsula.
Volcanic activity may increase at Iwo Jima and other Pacific volcanos.

Forecast 6-7 November 2023.
Magnitude 6 risk locations are Auckland Island, South of Kermadec Islands, Tonga, South of Fiji, Fiji, Northern Vanuatu, Hunter Island, Makira, Guadalcanal, Molucca Sea, Southern Sumatra, Marianas Islands, Izu Islands, Southeast of Japan.
Volcanic activity could increase. Fagradalsfjall.
A solar filament eruption is here bringing Kp6 geomagnetic storms. A coronal hole windstream is due on 9 November.
The period could develop over several days into a strong quake period.

Update. 7 November 10.00am
Pacific quakes and eruptions are quiet.
Strong Kp7 geomagnetic storming has subsided to Kp4/5 today as a long period of auroral activity continues.
Solar wind has picked up and is very fast 750km/second.
A second coronal mass ejection may arrive today at Earth.
A coronal hole windstream arrival on 8 November is unlikely to have much density but could maintain high solar wind speed for several days.
A strong tectonic response late in the period is possible.
Quake periods in Solar Cycle 25 are quieter at the onset of the period than equivalent quake periods in Solar Cycle 24.
Sunspot activity in Solar Cycle 25 is weaker but magnetic connections are becoming stronger.
The forecast period is extended to 8 November.
Hawaii is added to Mag 5/6 risk locations late in the period. Mauna Loa quake swarm possible.

Update. 9 November 11.30am
The period has sprung to life following four days of geomagnetic storms.
The Banda Sea 6.9, 7.1, 6.7 sequence is remote so no damage.
This is the first Mag 7 since the 29 August Bali Sea 7.1... a long period.
Spaceweather has eased back to Kp4 conditions.
The forecasted late CME arrival was much weaker than expected on 6 Nov. 0600 with a big increase in solar wind speed but no density increase...space was swept clean by the preceding CME.
Coronal hole CH1183 has arrived but once again because space is so low density with the passing of the coronal mass ejections there is no mass or field strength with the fast 700km/second windstream.
More late quakes are possible as the period slowly subsides.
The period is extended to 9 November.
Mentawai is added to Mag 6 risk locations.
Reykjanes Peninsula volcano Thorbjorn is the focal point for a very significant quake swarm and surface deformation.
Iceland volcanologists estimate the present uplift carries four times more magma than the Fagradalsfjall 2020-2022 sequence.
An eruption at Thorbjorn with new spaceweather seems highly likely and could be spectacular.
8 November.
Banda Sea 6.9 5.52pm
Banda Sea 7.1 5.53pm
Banda Sea 6.7 11.11pm