Reykjanes Forecast Updated. 18 December 2023 - 22 December 2023
The 18 December 2200UTC eruption at Reykjanes Peninsula coincided with the height of a Kp6 geomagnetic storm, following two CME's, one from the 14 December X2.8 flare. The flare wasn't as Earth directed as forecasted, reaching only Kp6. A mild high proton storm accompanied the flare and an Xray flash over Western Europe, not far from Iceland. Although eruption timing was perfectly matched to spaceweather, the eruption location was not at Eldsvorp Ridge. The eruption site was a 3.5km long fissure just north of Grindavik and as yet unnamed but could yet be called Sundhnukur. Lava fountains to 100m are apparently several times bigger than the fountains at nearby Fagradalsfjall eruption 2021-2022. The fountains have reduced to just 3 vents and today the lava has stopped. Uplift at Svartsengi just ahead of the eruption was back to the same level as just prior to the 11 November quake swarm that destroyed Grindavik and caused a rift/subsidence event. The combination of maximum uplift and spaceweather has caused the lava pushing up since 11 November to break through. This has caused minor subsidence at Svartsengi as the lava comes out and the land deflates back to the level it was for the last several hundred years. No further rifting has occurred with the eruption. Now that a conduit is open to the surface, lava may flow out with every spaceweather event. A new mild spaceweather event is due 23 December so lava may begin flowing again. Eldsvorp Ridge may yet be an eruption location as the Reykjanes eruption is unlikely to end for years. Forecast. 18-19 December 2023. Uplift at Svartsengi since the 10 November quake swarm and subsidence is back to the same level as 10 November. Strong Kp7 spaceweather due 17 December may cause more quake swarms, rifting and subsidence or an eruption or both. Eldvorp Ridge remains highest risk eruption location. Forecast. 22 November 2023. Moderate spaceweather due 20 November from an Earth facing solar filament eruption may bring Kp4 geomagnetic storms. A quake swarm at Reykjanes Peninsula is possible. Further ground subsidence is possible at Grindavik and Hagafell. Uplift and quakes are possible at Eldvorp. Stronger spaceweather from a recurrent coronal hole windstream is due 22-23 November and Kp5/6 geomagnetic storms. A strong quake swarm and eruption is possible. Etna, Mauna Loa and other volcanos may quake swarm during the period. Aotearoa Earthquake and Volcano Forecast Service © 2013 - 2024 |
