Aotearoa Summary. 23 January 2024 - 3 February 2024
Sunspots were fizzing during the period, bathing Earth's ionosphere with X rays for several days. Finally on 29 January angry departing sunspot 3559 fired an M6.8 non Earth directed flare and more Xrays and high energy protons affecting Earth. Local quakes responded to the radiation storm with a definable period of quakes and good location success. Hawaii giant volcano Kilauea has responded to the second storm on 29 January with a powerful quake swarm just SW of Halemaumau and a few deep quakes along the East Rift. Excellent risk location success during the forecast period, including an Arthurs Pass multi day swarm, peaking during the second storm. Local seismologists have confirmed the 29 January forecast update noting increasing volcanic tremor on the Volcanic Plateau. Their report notes Ruapehu is into a heating phase... although it has a lot more heating to go before it gets near an eruption. Volcanic tremor north of New Zealand was unusually high during the period and a minor undersea eruption may have occurred somewhere along the Kermadec or Tonga Ridge. Sadly the volcanologists no longer monitor signature volcano White Island, making it frustratingly harder to forecast for the Volcanic Plateau. 23 January. 50km North of D"Urville Island 4.1 7.55pm 25 January. 20km West of Porangahau 5.2 3.18am 27 January. 20km SW Puysegur Point 3.8 3.21pm 28 January. NW Arm Te Anau 3.8 2.14pm 29 January. Tokoroa 4.2 3.11am Otira 3.5 3.12pm Te Kaha 3.9 9.04pm NW D"Urville Island 4.1 9.53pm 30 January. 100km N. White Island 4.8 12.40am Update. 29 January 11.30pm A strong uptick in solar activity today has brought local quakes. A mild uptick in solar wind with this afternoons mild coronal hole windstream arrival has been matched by a strong M6.8 solar flare from sunspot 3559 just as it goes behind the western horizon. Ionospheric heating above Australia came with the X rays and a high proton storm. No geomagnetic storm will arrive as the flare wasn't Earth directed. Local quakes have responded and background tremor on the Volcanic Plateau is high. Arthurs Pass is in the midst of a small week long quake swarm, reaching Mag 3.5 at Otira so far. 29 January. Otira 3.5 3.12pm Te Kaha 3.9 9.04pm NW D"Urville Island 4.1 9.53pm Update. 29 January 10.30am The solar X-ray storm last few days has passed on and sunspots are quiet. A mild quake spell in New Zealand and the Pacific has evolved from the ionospheric heating and electric charging over the Pacific during the period. South Island quakes have increased following the Porangahau 5.2. Spaceweather is weak today but with occasional southward magnetic excursions, indicating the possibility for infrequent Mag 4 quakes. A stronger period of spaceweather is due later today when a mild coronal hole windstream arrives at Earth with Kp4 geomagnetic storms tonight. The forecast period is extended to 31 January. South Island is higher risk. Volcanic tremor at Ruapehu is high and background tremor in the Kermadec Islands and Tonga also above average. SW Pacific remains Mag 6 risk. 27 January. 20km SW Puysegur Point 3.8 3.21pm 28 January. NW Arm Te Anau 3.8 2.14pm 29 January. Tokoroa 4.2 3.11pm Update. 25 January 10.30am A strong ongoing solar X-ray storm and high proton storm has brought some good forecast results in New Zealand. Sunspots 3559 and 3561 have been fizzing along since the period began, firing multiple minor flares and accompanying filament eruptions. Activity has probably peaked but some effects from the CME action have yet to arrive and background is still at C2. More local quakes are possible next two days. Richmond Ranges, Otira, Crow River are added to Mag 4 risk locations. SW Pacific has become higher Mag 6 risk next 2 days. 23 January. 50km North of D"Urville Island 4.1 7.55pm 25 January. 20km West of Porangahau 5.2 3.18am Forecast. 23-24 January 2024. Magnitude 4 risk locations are East Cape, Atiamuri, Porangahau, Dannevirke, Masterton, Kapiti, Southern Cook Strait, Ward, North of D"Urville Island, Murchison, Haast, Arawhata River, Pyke River, Milford Sound, NW Arm Te Anau, Doubtful Sound, Puysegur Point, NW Snares Islands. Volcanos quiet. A coronal mass ejection from sunspot AR13555 on 20 January may bring Kp6 geomagnetic storms. The forecast period may be extended. Aotearoa Earthquake and Volcano Forecast Service © 2013 - 2024 |
