Aotearoa Earthquake and Volcano Forecast Service

Pacific Summary. 23 January 2024 - 3 February 2023

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This forecast was never updated during the forecast period but followed the same trend as the New Zealand forecast.
Coronal mass ejections from filament eruptions and strong background X ray activity drove the China 7.0.
Fortunately the area is remote so no damage.
SW Pacific was posted on the Aotearoa forecast as higher risk Mag 6 during the period. This proved to be the case with several big quakes in the region and reasonable risk location success.
Volcanos were simmering during the period but no new eruptions.
Kilauea is undergoing a major quake swarm beginning driven by the solar X ray and high proton storm from the 29 January M6.8 flare from sunspot 3559.
Volcanologists at Halemaumau say an eruption is possible anytime.
A couple of moderate quakes along Kilauea East Rift during the event indicate that movement is substantial.
Uplift at Grindavik and Svartsengi continued during the period but no new eruption. Uplift is now at a new higher level, indicating much bigger activity could be just around the corner.
The solar Xray flashes driving the 29 January action were over the Western Pacific/Australia region with high protons entering at the South Pole so there was probably little if any ionospheric charging over Iceland and no eruption at Reykjanes.
Another Reykjanes Peninsula area closer to Reykjavik is now showing increasing seismic activity. Reykjavik is built on some 7000 year old lava flows from this area. Hopefully the quakes die away.
Aurora season is now just around the corner and quakes and eruptions likely to increase when it arrives.
23 January.
NW China/Kyrgystan 7.0 7.09am
24 January.
SW Port Vila/Vanuatu 6.3 3.33am
27 January.
East of East Papua New Guinea/Bismarck Sea 5.5 3.15pm
Guatemala 6.1 6.52pm
28 January.
Inalnd Brazil/Peru border 6.5 10.38pm
31 January.
300km SW Tongatapu 5.8 11.49pm
Kilauea quake swarm

Forecast. 23-24 January 2024.
Magnitude 6 risk locations are Tonga, Hunter Island, Eastern Papua New Guinea, Atacama.
Volcanic activity may increase. Lewotolo, Marapi, Reykjanes, Grimsvotn..
The forecast period may be extended.
An Earth directed solar filament eruption from AR13555 may create Kp6 geomagnetic storms from early 23 January.