Aotearoa Summary. 25 March 2024 - 31 March 2024
It was the first Kp8 storm since 7 September 2017 but it only lasted 2 hours before magnetic orientation turned north and aurora lights went out. Local and Pacific quakes never happened with no driving force. Weak residual local action occurred 2 days after the storm, meeting the loose forecast rule that quakes after a period has ended tend to occur in the risk locations from that period. Good risk location success in higher risk Mag 5 locations but low magnitude and later than forecast. Luckily the geomagnetic storm fizzed out quickly or bigger quakes may have occurred during the period. Sunspot AR3615 is likely to appear again and could be flaring by 18 April. 28 March. Big Bay 4.0 4.58am East side Lake Te Anau 3.8 10.07am 29 March. 15km NW Mana Island 3.7 12.17pm Update. 26 March 12.00am The biggest geomagnetic storm since 2017 only briefly reached Kp8 before magnetic orientation turned north and aurora lights went out. Quakes and eruptions were non existent without any incoming solar wind. Excellent spaceweather timing and geomagnetic storm strength success. Sunspot AR3615 is weakening but still Earth facing and could flare again. Weak residual, if any, local quake action is possible on 26 March. Mag 5/6 seems highly unlikely. Forecast. 25-26 March 2024. Magnitude 5 risk locations are Snares Islands, Northwest Arm Te Anau, Milford Sound, Big Bay, Pyke River, Cascade River, Lake Coleridge, Kapiti, North of D"Urville Island, Offshore Levin, Eketahuna, Dannevirke, Waipukurau, Mahia, Gisborne, East Cape. Magnitude 4 risk locations are Puysegur Point, Doubtful Sound, Arawhata River, Haast, Arthurs Pass, Murchison, Cape Campbell, Turakirae Head, Masterton, Taupo, Tokoroa, Whakatane, Te Kaha. Volcanos quiet. Possibility Mag 6 New Zealand. Confidence=low. A significant Kp8 geomagnetic storm from the 23 March AR3614/3615 X1 flare may occur. The forecast period is likely to be extended. Aotearoa Earthquake and Volcano Forecast Service © 2013 - 2024 |
