Aotearoa Earthquake and Volcano Forecast Service

Aotearoa Summary Updated. 5 April 2024 - 9 April 2024

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Summary Update.
Late action on 9 April at Mt Whitcombe has ended the period with very good risk location success.
9 April.
Mt Whitcombe 4.1 11.25pm

The forecast period has probably ended on 7 April.
Spaceweather from coronal hole pair 1210/1211 arrived on cue with magnetic connection occurring very late 4 April.
Solar wind was very mild Kp3/4 but persistent magnetic connection, remaining at -5nT for the next 2 days, allowed conditions to slowly build.
Biggest local quakes were all in risk locations and justifying South Island weighted Mag 5 risk.
Good risk location success in rarely forecasted low confidence Northern Paparoa Ranges, the Greymouth 5.1 coming near the Southern Paparoa Ranges.
Sunspot 3615 is likely to return and be flaring by 15 April with a quake period to follow.
6 April.
NNE D"Urville Island 4.0 12.34am
NW Arm Te Anau 3.7 9.55pm
10km NW Greymouth 5.1 11.37pm

Forecast. 5-6 April 2024.
Magnitude 5 risk locations are Snares Islands, Doubtful Sound, NW Arm Te Anau, Milford Sound, Big Bay, Pyke River, Cascade River, Haast, Upper Wanganui River, North of D"Urville Island, Mana, Kapiti, Levin, South of Kermadec Islands.
Magnitude 4 risk locations are Mt Taylor, Lake Heron, Lake Coleridge, Northern Paparoa Range, Westport, Motueka, Waipukurau, Dannevirke, Hastings, Tokoroa, Atiamuri.
A solar windstream from coronal holes CH1210/1211 is here and may strengthen in the next day.