Aotearoa Earthquake and Volcano Forecast Service

Forecast for 7 December 2014 - 11 December 2014

Quake activity may increase. Magnitude 5+ risk areas are Bay of Plenty, Rotorua, Fiordland. Magnitude 4+ risk areas are East Cape, Taranaki, North Wairarapa.
Activity may begin in the Bay of Plenty and move into Fiordland later.
Global Magnitude 6+ risk areas are Solomon Islands, West of Sumatra.Global confidence =low.
Global volcanoes are highly inflated and further strong volcanic activity is possilbe from 8 December.
Weather Update.
Philippines meteorologists reported today Typhoon Hagiput gaining and losing strength. They have ordered mass evacuations and are expecting large floods and damaging winds.Watch out for severe weather conditions Category 5 Philippines on 7 December. Watch out also for damaging westerly gales in the east, heavy rain, thunder in the west, North Island. South Island = SW/SE gales, snow at high level. Weather confidence =low. Summary. This was a very successful forecast. The big Solomon Islands 6.8 started the period. Local quakes were steady and widespread through the early and middle stages of the period. Bay of Plenty wasn't as active as expected. The forecast was extended to 12 Dec. (see 10 Dec facebook posting) and justified with the 5.1 South of Fiordland rumble late on 12 Dec. and excellent location success. Christchurch has dropped off the forecasted locations in recent months demonstrated the strength of the conditions with a 4.5 early 13 Dec. 7 Dec. Bougainville 6.8, west of Karamea 4.1 8 Dec. Lake Taupo 4.1, Fiordland 4.1, Panama 6.7 10 Dec. Reefton 3.8, (4.2 USGS) 11 Dec. Rotorua 3.6, Tokoroa 3.9, Taiwan 6.1 12 Dec. South of Fiordland 5.1 13 Dec. Christchurch 4.5, north of White Island 3.9. Volcano Summary. A very successful forecast. Volcanoes are huge, too many to list (see 10 Dec Facebook posting) The levels of sulphuric gases pumped into the atmosphere by these volcanoes are increasing dramatically and may accelerate the global cooling conditions underway. Weather Summary. Local weather forecasting attempts were unsuccessful.