Aotearoa Summary. 17 April 2025 - 19 April 2025
One late quake on 19 April, the Kaweka Range 3.9 has given slight substance to the forecast risk locations. Nearby Ruahine Ranges were a risk location and other risk locations weighted in Northern Wairarapa, Hawkes Bay region. The period was a fizzer due to the fluctuating magnetic orientation of the coronal mass ejection and local quakes never made it above Mag 4. Regardless a decent Mag 3+ period occurred and some risk location correlation is better than nothing from such a brief period. A much stronger and longer period is due by late 21 April with the possibility of Pacific Mag 7 by 23 April. 16 April. South of Gisborne 4.1 7.20am 17 April. Northwest of Gisborne 3.5 5.11am South of Kermadecs 5.3 5.35am South of Kermadecs 5.4 5.44am White Island minor ash 18 April. West of Motueka 3.7 5.53am 19 April. Kaweka Ranges 3.9 8.56am Update. 18 April 12.30pm The forecast has given mixed results. Strong brief Kp7 storming set in early on 16 April with early morning auroras in Otago and Southland but only lasted 3 hours. Geomagnetic conditions briefly changed again to -20nT later in the day as a second shock arrived but only for 8 hours before swinging north for the remainder of the period. The 15 April 1200UTC arrival of the storm was 24 hours ahead of the forecasted arrival, a forecast mistake. Kermadecs and South of Kermadecs were high risk locations and quakes did evolve south of the Kermadec Islands despite the patchy spaceweather. Local quakes never made it past Mag 4 and limited location success with the brief geomagnetic storms. A Pacific volcanic period may be evolving but the only big quake was the South Indian Ocean 6.6 during the period. Geonet have released a statement that White Island is in low level eruption. They add that they don't know exactly when the eruption began due to the lack of monitoring equipment on the volcano since the 2019 tragedy. The forecasts at this service used to rely heavily on White Island data as a signature volcano so hopefully they restore their instruments soon... Spaceweather has largely faded away today and the period has probably ended. New spaceweather from a large southern coronal hole windstream is due late 21 April. 16 April. South of Gisborne 4.1 7.20am 17 April. Northwest of Gisborne 3.5 5.11am South of Kermadecs 5.3 5.35am South of Kermadecs 5.4 5.44am White Island minor ash 18 April. West of Motueka 3.7 5.53am 19 April. Kaweka Ranges 3.9 8.56am Forecast. 17-18 April 2025. Magnitude 5 risk locations are East of East Cape. Magnitude 4 risk locations are South of Wairoa, Hastings, Ruahine Ranges, Waipukurau, Levin, Offshore Kapiti, Richmond Ranges, Milford Sound, Northwest Arm Te Anau, Doubtful Sound, Puysegur Point. Minor ash emissions continue at White Island. The 16 April 7.20am South of Gisborne 4.1 occurred after the onset of Kp6 geomagnetic storming but before this forecast was posted. The period is likely to be extended. Aotearoa Earthquake and Volcano Forecast Service © 2013 - 2025 |
