Aotearoa Earthquake and Volcano Forecast Service

Aotearoa Summary. 28 June 2025 - 2 July 2025

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A fast 800km/second solar windstream from Coronal Hole 1302 arrived at ACE satellite early on 25 July with an expected tectonic response by 28 June as wind speed dropped back to 400km/seconds.
The period turned out to be a weak one with only a brief spell of Kp5 geomagnetic driving conditions.
Typically for Solar Cycle 25, Mag 4 quakes are becoming isolated during forecast periods. In Solar Cycle 24 there would be clusters of Mag 4 quakes.
Local quakes never made it to Mag 4 during the period although there was excellent risk location success with the biggest quakes.
Mag 5 risk was late but probably justified in the end if you believe Geonet offshore data.
The 2 July South of Fiordland 5.1 was recorded as 3.9 by EMSC and USGS didn't give a recording.
South of Fiordland and Fiordland were Mag 5 risk no brainer forecast locations following recent big quakes there.
28 June.
Cape Campbell 3.6 6.38pm
29 June.
20km South of Puysegur Point 3.7 11.24am
2 July.
NW of Snares Islands 5.1 4.38am Geonet (3.9 EMSC, USGS no recording)
NW of Snares Islands 4.2 6.19am Geonet

Forecast 28-30 June 2025.
Mag 5 risk locations are South of Puysegur Point, Doubtful Sound, Southwest Arm Te Anau, Northwest Arm Te Anau, Doubtful Sound, Charles Sound, George Sound, Offshore Milford Sound, South of Kermadec Islands.
Mag 4 risk locations are Lower Hollyford River, Pyke River, Lower Arawhata River, Cape Campbell, Kapiti, Offshore Levin, North of D'Urville Island, Northern Tararua Ranges, Masterton, Waipukurau, East of East Cape.
Volcanos quiet.
Mild geomagnetic quake driving conditions beginning 25 June with the arrival of Coronal Hole 1302 have briefly reached Kp6 today.
A local quake buildup may be underway.
Isolated local quakes may evolve with a possible peak on 29 June.
Possibility Mag 6 Fiordland. Confidence = low.