Aotearoa Earthquake and Volcano Forecast Service

Aotearoa Summary. 5 July 2025 - 11 July 2025

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Weak but persistent coronal hole driven solar wind drove another big Pacific volcanic period with subdued quakes, the only Mag 6 just south of Fiordland.
Geomagnetic conditions reached a low Kp5 peak on 7 July when local quakes began, dragging on for a few days.
Outside of Fiordland, local quakes never made Mag 4 with mixed location success on the biggest.
The Ruapehu quake swarm began merely 2 hours ahead of the South of Fiordland 6.3 as it all started to squeeze up tight.
The 9 July Lake Taupo 3.6 is another indicator for the Volcanic Plateau being under pressure during the period.
New spaceweather from Coronal Hole 1306 is due 12 July.
A local quake period may begin 13 July and another Pacific volcanic period.
Fiordland is likely to be Mag 5/6 risk.
7 July.
Pyke River 3.5 1.01pm
East of Ruapehu/Rangipo 8 July.
100km NW Snares Islands 6.3 12.53am USGS. Geonet 6.1
9 July.
Lake Taupo 3.6 12.42am
10 July.
50km WNW Doubtful Sound 5.1 11.09am Geonet. USGS 4.7
11 July.
Northern Orongorongo Range 3.6 8.47am

Forecast. 5-6 July 2025.
5 risk locations are South of Fiordland, Doubtful Sound, SW Arm Te Anau, NW Arm Te Anau, George Sound, Offshore Milford Sound.
Magnitude 4 risk locations are Lower Hollyford River, Pyke River, Lower Arawhata River, North of Hanmer Springs, Clarence River, Cape Campbell, Masterton, Northern Tararuas, Dannevirke, Waipukurau, Kapiti, East of East Cape.
Volcanos quiet.
Moderate spaceweather from a solar filament eruption and Coronal Hole 1304 are combining to make a brief moderate quake period.