Aotearoa Earthquake and Volcano Forecast Service

Aotearoa Summary. 14 August 2025 - 18 August 2025

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Long lived but moderate fast solar wind conditions have given good risk location success during the forecast period.
The forecast was posted just ahead of the NE of Waipukurau 4.9 and more good location success south of Fiordland.
Quakes were likely to be well spaced from mild spaceweather and the likelihood that Earth's electrical circuit is heavily discharged following the July megaquake period.
A late burst of quakes were under Mag 4 but were in risk locations... especially the widened Lower Awatere risk location.
Solar wind from transequatorial Coronal Hole 1312 has arrived and likely to continue the period.
A new forecast is posted for 19 August with similar risk locations.
13 August.
15km Northeast of Waipukurau 4.9 5.53pm
Northwest of Snares Islands 4.6 9.38pm
18 August.
5km Southwest of Lake Grassmere 3.8 1.40am
15km Southeast of Pongaroa 3.8 12.31pm

Update. 15 August 9.00pm
The forecast was posted on Facebook just 39 minutes ahead of the NE of Waipukurau 4.9.
The period demonstrates once again how quakes seldom come at the onset of geomagnetic conditions in Solar Cycle 25, unlike Solar Cycle 24.
The geomagnetic period began on 9 August NZ time with the onset of strong but brief Kp6 coronal hole driven conditions before settling into several days of fast solar wind.
Seismic tremor at Ruapehu is steady and likely to continue.
The forecast period is extended to 16 August.
All risk locations and magnitudes are unchanged.
13 August.
15km Northeast of Waipukurau 4.9 5.53pm
Northwest of Snares Islands 4.6 9.38pm

Forecast. 14-15 August 2025.
Magnitude 5 risk locations are Northwest of Snares Islands, Offshore Doubtful Sound, Offshore Caswell Sound, Offshore George Sound, Northwest Arm Te Anau, Doubtful Sound, Haast/Landsborough Junction, South of Kermadec Islands.
Magnitude 4 risk locations are Puysegur Point, Pyke River, Lower Arawhata River, Twizel, Lower Awatere River, Cape Campbell, Ward, South Wairarapa, Dannevirke, Lake Taupo, Rotorua, Ruatoria, Offshore East Cape.
Volcanic tremor continues at Ruapehu.
Active Kp6 geomagnetic conditions beginning 8 August have weakened to persistent Kp3/4 substorm conditions and likely to continue for several days.
A slow quake buildup is underway possibly from very weak base piezoelectric conditions following the large discharge during July, creating uncertain forecast conditions.
Quakes, if any, are likely to be infrequent.
The forecast period is likely to be extended.